In 2022, the real estate market continued to have hiking home prices with a decrease in home sales, especially towards the end of the year as interest increased. According to The Canadian Real Estate Association, starting in November 2022, there was a 3.3% month-over-month decline in national home sales. Compared to 2022’s peak in February with an average of $816,720, the national average home price in November 2022 was $632,802 which is a 22.5% decrease. The amount of newly listed properties have also declined by an average of 1.3% month-over-month in November, with larger declines in the B.C. Lower Mainland and Okanagan regions. November 2022 marked the lowest number of new listings in a month in 17 years.

With the current inflation rates in Canada, it has forced interest rates to increase as well. The Bank of Canada kept raising rates aggressively in 2022, with a 100-basis point hike in July. This month’s hike marks the 8th time the Bank raised rates since March 2022. As of Jan 25, 2023, the overnight rate stands at 4.5%.

Will home prices drop in 2023 and bottom out?

While Canadians will still likely continue to struggle with inflation in 2023, RE/MAX anticipates that 60% of housing markets will see more balanced conditions, meaning the supply and demand for housing will be more even compared to 2022. This is expected to be more apparent during the third and fourth quarters of 2023, especially in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Mississauga, Greater Vancouver Area (GVA), Calgary, Regina, and Winnipeg. The largest price declines are forecasted to be in Ontario and Western Canada where several cities can see a 10-15% decline. However, Atlantic regions such as Halifax and St. John’s are expected to see an 8% and 4% increase in home prices respectively.  TD bank predicts that Canadian home sales will bottom in early 2023.

Despite the 2023 housing market predictions, Vancouver is still anticipated to be the most expensive region, averaging a home price of $1.2 million. On the other hand, Regina will have the most affordable prices with an average of $361,495 by the end of 2023. Royal Lepage notes home prices have declined from the highs earlier last year, but are still higher than pre-pandemic. The projected average home price in Canada for Q4 2023 is estimated to be 15% higher than Q4 2020 and 18.4% higher than Q4 2019.

Although house prices will fall, rents are projected to rise as there was a lack of rental listings. In 2022, the average price of a single bedroom apartment in Toronto is now $2481 a month which has increased 20% year-over-year. The hike in rental prices is mainly because listings have gone down 25.6%, causing there to be a lack of supply. However, due to such high prices, most Canadians cannot afford to buy a house and hence, there are more renters than homeowners. This is prominent in cities such as Montreal, Quebec City, and Halifax as more than 50% of the buildings built since 2016 are rented. From a survey conducted by RE/MAX, 15% of Canadians are debating about moving to a different province for better housing availability and livability.

Will there be New Regulations in 2023?

The Government of Canada can see how inflation has caused houses to be less affordable for Canadians so they have taken new measures to counteract the problem.

To make homes more affordable to Canadians, the Government of Canada has passed the Prohibition on the Purchase of Residential Property by Non-Canadians Act which came into effect on January 1, 2023. This Act prevents non-Canadians or corporations that are not incorporated in Canada, from buying residential property for 2 years beginning on January 1, 2023. According to the Government of Canada, residential property is defined as a building with 3 homes or less and parts of buildings such as a semi-detached house or a condominium unit. If this law is violated, the non-Canadian or anyone who intentionally assists a non-Canadian, will receive a $10,000 fine and the court may request the sale of the house. This new regulation can help make sure that homes are being used by Canadians to live in and not as assets for foreign investors.

For foreigners who already own a house in Canada, they will need to pay a 1% vacant home tax annually if the home is underused. This measure is to ensure that non-Canadians pay their fair share of Canadian tax and in hopes that this will free up more homes for Canadians.

The last measure is to add Goods and Services Tax/Harmonized Sales Tax (GST/HST) on all houses that are resold before it has been built or lived in. This was effective as of May 7, 2022 and can help reduce homes being sold for high prices.

All three regulations are made for the same purpose – to make homes more affordable and increase the number of Canadian homeowners.

Housing Market 2023 Predictions

As 2022 was still a year of hiking home prices, the Government of Canada is taking measures to help Canadians become homeowners at more affordable prices. Although interest rates are expected to remain the same, house prices are forecasted to decrease in many regions. Based on the trends, 2023 is predicted to be a year with a more balanced market.

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Whatever the case, numerous tax and legal considerations exist when you leave Canada — especially in the home selling process.

In this article, we talk about the many aspects of selling your home as you leave Canada and what you should consider.

Non-Resident Status

When you leave Canada to live in another country, you sever residential ties in Canada. This could mean selling your home, revoking your driver’s licence, or leaving clubs and organizations. As a result, you usually become a non-resident of Canada.

You become a non-resident for income tax purposes at the latest of:

• The date you leave
• The date your spouse or common-law partners and dependents leave Canada
• The date you become a resident of the country you settle in.

As a result, you aren’t obliged to pay all the same Canadian taxes as before. When you leave Canada, it’s best to speak with a tax professional to understand your obligations.

Departure Tax

One implication of becoming a non-resident is departure taxes — various taxes you must pay due to your departure.

When you leave Canada, the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) deems you to dispose of certain types of assets at fair market value and reacquire them at the same price. This creates a capital gains tax that you need to pay. Accountants generally refer to this as a deemed disposition.

This deemed disposition on departure applies to properties like jewellery, paintings, and company shares (excluding TFSA or RRSP shares). So, your home is not deemed to be sold when you leave the country.

How to Notify CRA that You’re Leaving Canada for Good and File Your Canada Departure Tax Return

When you leave Canada, you need to file a departure tax return to notify CRA that you’re leaving. You generally need to file this tax return by April 30th of the year following your departure. The purpose of this tax return is to

• Record the date you leave Canada and change your residency
• Report the properties you own in Canada
• Prepare various tax forms
• Report and pay any departure taxes.

Leaving Canada and Your Principal Property

Capital gains are only taxable if you sell your home — suggesting it’s your principal property — when you’re no longer a resident. While, if you’re a resident, capital gains tax is generally exempt because your home is your principal residence.

When you depart from Canada, you usually have two options to deal with your principal property:

• Sell your property while you’re still a resident of Canada and have capital gains exempted through the principal residence exemption.
• Wait until you’re a non-resident to sell. In this case, the principal residence exemption is still generally available for the years in which you owned the property as a Canadian resident and fulfilled the other criteria for the principal residence exemption.

Selling Your Home as a Non-Resident

As a non-resident selling your home, you are liable to capital gains taxes because non-residents cannot access a principal residence exemption. In this process, you must notify CRA and complete Form T2062.

You’re generally liable to capital gains taxes in the years you’re a non-resident. For example, suppose you owned a home from 2003 to 2022.

• The home was your principal residence between 2003 and 2018.
• In 2018, you became a non-resident and moved out of the country.
• In 2022 you sold your Canadian home as a non-resident.

In this case, you’re likely liable to capital gains tax between 2018 and 2022 because the property was no longer your principal residence in these years.

Once the home is sold, you need to inform CRA of the sale within ten days after the sale closes. You make this notification through Form T2062. If you don’t, there’s usually a penalty of up to $2,500. The form requires you to estimate your capital gain or loss on the sale.

The property buyer may also assist in the tax collection process by withholding taxes from the due proceeds. This amount could be 25% of the purchase price being held up for months. So it’s best to be prepared for such a situation from a cash flow perspective.

When you sell your home as a non-resident, speak with a tax professional to understand your tax obligations. It will prevent surprises from hitting you in the face when you least expect them — like a 25% withholding tax on the sale of your Canadian property.

Repay Your Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP)

The Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) lets Canadians withdraw from their registered retirement savings plan (RRSP) to buy or build their home.

Currently, the withdrawal is limited to $35,000, and you must repay the amount within 15 years. If you don’t repay the amount, it’s included into your RRSP income on your tax return, which could have significant income tax consequences.

If you choose to leave Canada, you need to repay your HBP or face an income inclusion for the amount. The balance of your HBP is payable on the earlier of:

• Before the date you file income tax for the year you become a non-resident;
• Sixty days after leaving Canada.

So if you’re planning to emigrate from Canada, it’s essential to ensure you have the funds ready to return whatever you borrowed from your RRSP to purchase your home. Otherwise, you’ll be on the hook for a lot of taxes!

Leaving Canada has many tax implications. Selling your home after you’ve left the country complicates this situation. If you’re leaving Canada or selling your home as a non-resident, it’s vital to speak with a tax professional and experience realtor to understand the implications of your decision.

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