So, is the real estate bubble finally popping? Well… not necessarily. There may be headlines claiming a real estate armageddon, but everyone has their own thesis. In this article, we reflect on what some of the top experts forecast for the future of the Canadian real estate market. We also review the factors steering us away from the idea that the real estate market is about to burst.

What is Everyone Saying About the Future of Canadian Real Estate?

There has been no shortage of predictions and research reports on what to expect in the near- and long-term of Canada’s residential real estate market. The CEO of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) provided a gloomy outlook on what’s to come. In a testimony to the House of Commons, he predicted that home prices could fall between 9-18% over the next year. One of the major fears that Siddall had was a “debt deferral cliff”, where mortgage deferral programs would come to an end and Canadians would need to start making payments again — whether they have the income to or not.

Not all experts agreed with Siddall. RBC forecasted that housing prices may decline 5% compared to last year; CIBC forecasted a 5-10% decline; and Moody’s, a financial services and research firm, estimated an 8% decline in Canadian real estate prices. And, in a surprising turn, TD predicted that home prices may increase by as much as 13.8% in some provinces by the end of 2020. While a 5-10% decline in housing prices is still significant, it’s nowhere near the possible 18% that Siddal had in mind.

Currently, CREA and other real estate boards have not reported significant declines in real estate prices, despite sales activity plummeting across the country. Not only has the pandemic resulted in fewer Canadians looking to purchase a property, but it has also delayed those looking to sell. Once restrictions of social gatherings and the threat of Coronavirus lifts, we may see momentum return to the real estate market on both the buyer and seller side.

Why We Likely Won’t See the Real Estate Bubble Pop

There are plenty of uncertain factors. For example, we don’t know how long social distancing measures will last in each province. We’re also unsure of how long it’ll take before we find a vaccine for Coronavirus. The longer social distancing is required and the longer a vaccine takes, the more negative effects we’ll see in the real estate market.

However, many factors point towards a healthy market once the COVID-19-era passes. This includes pent-up demand and supply, low-interest rates, and delayed housing inventory.

Pent-Up Demand and Supply

Many individuals hoping to buy or sell their home are waiting until Coronavirus ends. With the pandemic in place, it’s much harder to go through the whole process of hosting open houses and finding a home/buyer. This is one of the reasons why the price of residential units sold did not drop significantly or at all — because supply and demand for real estate declined in equal parts. As a result, it’s reasonable that sales activity will skyrocket once social distancing measures loosen up.

Further, the high cost of properties in cities such as Toronto and Vancouver is the result of a limited housing supply and high demand. The COVID-19 situation is neither reducing the demand nor increasing the supply — the ingredients required to pop the bubble. Instead, COVID-19 is reducing both demand and supply.

Low-Interest Rates Mean More Demand

When interest rates are low, demand for property goes up as it’s now cheaper to borrow money and purchase a property. Due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the Bank of Canada in March cut interest rates significantly and is currently holding it at 0.25%. This results in less costly mortgages (for the most part). Although we continue to see more uncertainty, these low-interest rates could drive even more demand in a post-COVID-19 world, meaning prices will only go higher if supply remains the same.

COVID-19 Has Also Stalled the Supply of New Homes

The construction of new homes is one way that the market can increase its supply of residential homes.  Although most construction is still permitted, the requirement for construction workers to socially distance themselves onsite has ultimately reduced productivity. In the prior mentioned report from CIBC, it estimates that social distancing regulations and the lag in overseas shipments have reduced construction productivity by 40%. This will ultimately result in a reduced supply of new housing.

What Factors Could Lead to Weaker Real Estate Prices?

Coronavirus has also birthed factors that could reduce demand to the point that prices may fall in the future. Due to the mass unemployment and rustles in the stock market, Canadians might prefer to delay their purchase of significant investments such as a home. Further, buyers who think that real estate prices will crash could be holding off until prices come down. Both of these factors could result in less demand. Although the unemployment numbers may point to a weaker economy, many of these jobs are layoffs. Companies that did lay off employees will likely rehire them once society recovers from the pandemic.

Many of the large Canadian banks predict that real estate prices will decline a few percentage points. This decline is possibly a market correction but not the bursting of a real estate bubble. Pent up demand, low-interest rates, and delayed new constructions could even result in higher real estate prices — not lower. There’s likely still time before a Coronavirus vaccine is found, but when it is, both buyers and sellers will be back in action!

The post What the Canadian Real Estate Market Could Look Like After COVID-19 first appeared on RankMyAgent - Trusted resource about Buying, Selling and Renting.

In this article, we explain both why and how to invest in Canada’s flourishing real estate markets. We look at the appreciating values and rising rental incomes of Canadian properties and also what to look out for when making your investment. 

Why Canadian real estate? 

There are pros and cons of investing in Canada, of course, and then there are also pros and cons of investing in particular provinces and cities. But generally, Canadian real estate has continually appreciated in property value and rental earnings over the past years. According to the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI), home prices across Canada appreciated 38.34% over the past five years. Additionally, hotter cities grew even more in average price, with Toronto rising 56.60% and Vancouver rising 54.18% over the past five years.  Markets such as Montreal and Halifax have also been popular more recently.

While appreciation is great, rental income is also an important part of your real estate investment. According to rentals.ca, the national average rent has gone up over the past year, despite having various ups and downs. The average Canadian rent in October 2018 was $1,839 while the average rent in August 2019 was $1,914. What’s more, rent prices are expected to rise throughout 2019 and likely into the following year due to higher interest rates, more immigration, more renters as opposed to homeowners, among other reasons. 

However, there are a few downsides in investing in Canada. In many provinces, landlord-tenant laws favour the tenant. In Ontario, for example, there is a standard lease agreement that all landlords and tenants must use. Among other conditions, the lease agreement prevents landlords from evicting tenants unless they use the unit themselves.  Of course, having some provisions are necessary to balance the playing field for both landlords and tenants. 

How to make money investing in Canadian real estate 

With residential real estate, the increase in property value and rental income are the two main ways to produce a profit. As mentioned before, Canadian real estate excels in both categories. But there are also other costs to worry about aside from the price of the property. Interest payments, transaction fees, taxes, and more can eat into how much you make. 

Property value

Canadian properties have gone up a lot over the past few years and will most likely continue to appreciate in the long term. But it’s a mistake to assume that property values will consistently go up. The real estate market experiences highs and lows, and investors who can’t stomach volatility or who may need to sell quickly in a down market may end up losing money. Looking at the HPI® index, prices in the Metro Vancouver Area peaked in May 2017 and haven’t returned to such a level since. Thus, speak with a real estate profession to see whether it’s a good time to buy or if you should wait for the market to go down. Although a realtor isn’t some sort of oracle, they can provide some insight about whether prices may go higher or lower in your area. If you get into an investment when the market is low, it’ll be easier to make money. 

Rental income 

In many Canadian real estate markets, you can expect at least $1,000 of rental income a month for just an apartment. When you look into Toronto and Vancouver, this easily reaches over $2,000 a month. Although vacancy rates are low in many cities, there are a few things to keep in mind to make sure that your rental is the top choice among tenants. Aside from a low price, tenants value a property with a good location and a reputable builder. 

As the saying goes, location, location, location. A property at the centre of the Toronto financial district will ultimately fetch more rental applications and a higher rental price than a spot in the suburbs—of course, it’ll be more expensive to purchase too. But also keep in mind locations that may be noisier, such as those close to a railroad, or areas that have higher crime rates. This can turn off tenants and make your property less desirable.

The builder of your property is especially important if you’re renting out a condominium. Finding a condo from a reputable builder is important. As real estate development has become so profitable in many Canadian cities, new real estate developers with little experience have continually built massive condo complexes. Because new developers lack a reputation in the market, it could be a risk to purchase a unit from them. The building could end up poorly constructed or have poor management, which will deter tenants. A realtor can guide you on how a builder’s past projects have gone.

Keep down fees

There are a lot of fees associated with real estate investing that you can’t forget about. If you do, they’ll eat into your profits. A major one is the closing costs associated with purchasing the property (and later selling the property). This includes realtor commissions, lawyer fees, cost for inspections, and more. These closing fees can total a few thousand dollars.

Then there are taxes. You’re taxed on both the appreciation of your property and any rental income you earn. When you decide to sell your property, you’ll be charged a capital gains tax on the difference between your purchase and the selling price. You’ll also be charged property tax which varies city to city. Expenses, such as interest payments on your mortgage or other monies borrowed, can reduce these taxes. 

Canada has many great real estate markets to invest in—from the Metro Vancouver area across to Halifax. The appreciation of property value combined with rental income can make you a healthy profit. But make sure to watch out for all the fees. 

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