So, is the real estate bubble finally popping? Well… not necessarily. There may be headlines claiming a real estate armageddon, but everyone has their own thesis. In this article, we reflect on what some of the top experts forecast for the future of the Canadian real estate market. We also review the factors steering us away from the idea that the real estate market is about to burst.

What is Everyone Saying About the Future of Canadian Real Estate?

There has been no shortage of predictions and research reports on what to expect in the near- and long-term of Canada’s residential real estate market. The CEO of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) provided a gloomy outlook on what’s to come. In a testimony to the House of Commons, he predicted that home prices could fall between 9-18% over the next year. One of the major fears that Siddall had was a “debt deferral cliff”, where mortgage deferral programs would come to an end and Canadians would need to start making payments again — whether they have the income to or not.

Not all experts agreed with Siddall. RBC forecasted that housing prices may decline 5% compared to last year; CIBC forecasted a 5-10% decline; and Moody’s, a financial services and research firm, estimated an 8% decline in Canadian real estate prices. And, in a surprising turn, TD predicted that home prices may increase by as much as 13.8% in some provinces by the end of 2020. While a 5-10% decline in housing prices is still significant, it’s nowhere near the possible 18% that Siddal had in mind.

Currently, CREA and other real estate boards have not reported significant declines in real estate prices, despite sales activity plummeting across the country. Not only has the pandemic resulted in fewer Canadians looking to purchase a property, but it has also delayed those looking to sell. Once restrictions of social gatherings and the threat of Coronavirus lifts, we may see momentum return to the real estate market on both the buyer and seller side.

Why We Likely Won’t See the Real Estate Bubble Pop

There are plenty of uncertain factors. For example, we don’t know how long social distancing measures will last in each province. We’re also unsure of how long it’ll take before we find a vaccine for Coronavirus. The longer social distancing is required and the longer a vaccine takes, the more negative effects we’ll see in the real estate market.

However, many factors point towards a healthy market once the COVID-19-era passes. This includes pent-up demand and supply, low-interest rates, and delayed housing inventory.

Pent-Up Demand and Supply

Many individuals hoping to buy or sell their home are waiting until Coronavirus ends. With the pandemic in place, it’s much harder to go through the whole process of hosting open houses and finding a home/buyer. This is one of the reasons why the price of residential units sold did not drop significantly or at all — because supply and demand for real estate declined in equal parts. As a result, it’s reasonable that sales activity will skyrocket once social distancing measures loosen up.

Further, the high cost of properties in cities such as Toronto and Vancouver is the result of a limited housing supply and high demand. The COVID-19 situation is neither reducing the demand nor increasing the supply — the ingredients required to pop the bubble. Instead, COVID-19 is reducing both demand and supply.

Low-Interest Rates Mean More Demand

When interest rates are low, demand for property goes up as it’s now cheaper to borrow money and purchase a property. Due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the Bank of Canada in March cut interest rates significantly and is currently holding it at 0.25%. This results in less costly mortgages (for the most part). Although we continue to see more uncertainty, these low-interest rates could drive even more demand in a post-COVID-19 world, meaning prices will only go higher if supply remains the same.

COVID-19 Has Also Stalled the Supply of New Homes

The construction of new homes is one way that the market can increase its supply of residential homes.  Although most construction is still permitted, the requirement for construction workers to socially distance themselves onsite has ultimately reduced productivity. In the prior mentioned report from CIBC, it estimates that social distancing regulations and the lag in overseas shipments have reduced construction productivity by 40%. This will ultimately result in a reduced supply of new housing.

What Factors Could Lead to Weaker Real Estate Prices?

Coronavirus has also birthed factors that could reduce demand to the point that prices may fall in the future. Due to the mass unemployment and rustles in the stock market, Canadians might prefer to delay their purchase of significant investments such as a home. Further, buyers who think that real estate prices will crash could be holding off until prices come down. Both of these factors could result in less demand. Although the unemployment numbers may point to a weaker economy, many of these jobs are layoffs. Companies that did lay off employees will likely rehire them once society recovers from the pandemic.

Many of the large Canadian banks predict that real estate prices will decline a few percentage points. This decline is possibly a market correction but not the bursting of a real estate bubble. Pent up demand, low-interest rates, and delayed new constructions could even result in higher real estate prices — not lower. There’s likely still time before a Coronavirus vaccine is found, but when it is, both buyers and sellers will be back in action!

The post What the Canadian Real Estate Market Could Look Like After COVID-19 first appeared on RankMyAgent - Trusted resource about Buying, Selling and Renting.

From legalization, the Canadian government is expecting recreational marijuana sales to hit $4 billion annually. This $4 billion is subject to a 10% excise tax for the federal government, and each province will be able to set its own additional tax. Thus, provinces can expect marijuana to be a huge boost to their revenues.

Both the ability for Canadians to grow marijuana at home and the expected expanded use of the recreational drug has many in the real estate sector concerned. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has been up in arms about the implication of cannabis legalization, citing that it can cause damage to and devalue homes. It’s without a doubt that with this new member of Canadian society, homeowners, landlords, and renters will be severely affected.

In a CREA statement earlier this year, they firmly stated that there were major issues with cannabis legalization, and that more regulations were needed on growing cannabis at home. CREA wanted Bill C-45, which legalizes cannabis, to provide a framework for safe home cultivation, believing that without a framework, cultivation could lead to electrical fires, increased theft, and potential fungus and mould issues in homes across the country.

The dangers of growing marijuana in your home is due to the need for lights, which can cause excess energy consumption and potential fires, the need for a certain humidity level, which can encourage mould or fungus growth, and the increased potential for break-ins due to the value of the plants. However, some experts believe this is false speculation. And that with four plants, humidity levels won’t be high enough to encourage mould or fungus. Additionally, four plants will only require 200 watts of lighting—a level that’s safe against electrical fires.

• Homes around dispensaries were subject to a discount prior to marijuana being legal. Legalization resulted in a lift in the stigma around the drug, resulting in home prices returning to its fair value.
• The large volumes of business for these dispensaries resulted in an economic boost to the local area.

• Quebec: Landlords can change signed leases and ban tenants from smoking. They have 90 days after legalization to make said changes—this does not apply to medical marijuana.
• Nova Scotia: Landlords can amend existing leases to add in rules about cannabis use and cultivation, but they have to provide a four-month notice before April 30, 2019.
• Saskatchewan: Landlords can prohibit possession, cultivation, use, and the sale of marijuana in a rental unit.
• Alberta: Renters and condo tenants may have restrictions on growing marijuana at home due to rental contracts or the condominium bylaws.
• British Columbia: Prohibition of smoking cannabis where existing lease prohibits tobacco and prohibition of growing the drug unless it’s for medical reasons.
• Ontario: Condominium boards can restrict growing cannabis, and smoking depends on individual building rules and lease agreements.

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